Reasoning in criminal intelligence analysis through an argumentation theory-based framework

This thesis provides an in-depth analysis of criminal intelligence analysts’ analytical reasoning process and offers an argumentation theory-based framework as a means to support that reasoning process in software applications. Researchers have extensively researched specific areas of criminal intelligence analysts’ sensemaking and reasoning processes over the decades. However, the research is fractured across different research studies and those research studies often have high-level descriptions of how criminal intelligence analysts formulate their rationale (argument). This thesis addresses this gap by offering low level descriptions on how the reasoning-formulation process takes place. It is presented as a single framework, with supporting templates, to inform the software implementation process. Knowledge from nine experienced criminal intelligence analysts from West Midlands Police and Belgium’s Local and Federal Police forces were elicited through a semi-structured interview for study 1 and the Critical Decision Method (CDM), as part of the Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) approach, was used for study 2 and study 3. The data analysis for study 1 made use of the Qualitative Conventional Content Analysis approach. The data analysis for study 2 made use of a mixed method approach, consisting out of Qualitative Directed Content Analysis and the Emerging Theme Approach. The data analysis for study 3 made use of the Qualitative Directed Content Analysis approach. The results from the three studies along with the concepts from the existing literature informed the construction of the argumentation theory-based framework. The evaluation study for the framework’s components made use of Paper Prototype Testing as a participatory design method over an electronic medium. The low-fidelity prototype was constructed by turning the frameworks’ components into software widgets that resembled widgets on a software application’s toolbar. Eight experienced criminal intelligence analysts from West Midlands Police and Belgium’s Local and Federal Police forces took part in the evaluation study. Participants had to construct their rationale using the available components as part of a simulated robbery crime scenario, which used real anonymised crime data from West Midlands Police force. The evaluation study made use of a Likert scale questionnaire to capture the participant’s views on how the frameworks’ components aided participants with; understanding what was going on in the analysis, lines-of-enquiry and; the changes in their level of confidence pertaining to their rationale. A non-parametric, one sample z-test was used for reporting the statistical results. The significance is at 5% (α=0.05) against a median of 3 for the z-test, where μ =3 represents neutral. The participants reported a positive experience with the framework’s components and results show that the framework’s components aided them with formulating their rationale and understanding how confident they were during different phases of constructing their rationale

The enigma of Calonectria species occurring on leaves of Ilex aquifolium in Europe

Species of Calonectria are common saprobes and plant pathogens on a wide range of hosts occurring in subtropical to tropical regions of the world. The aim of the present study was to resolve the status of new Calonectria collections obtained on Ilex leaves from France. Based on DNA sequence data of their b-tubulin and histone gene regions, as well as morphology, the new collections matched the ex-type strain of Cylindrocladium ilicicola. On the host and in culture, yellow to brownish-yellow perithecia were observed that did not strain red in 3 % KOH. Based on these results, C. ilicicola and its purported teleomorph, Ca. pyrochroa, were shown to represent two distinct species, as the latter has bright red perithecia that strain purple in KOH. A new combination, Ca. lauri, based on Tetracytum lauri, is subsequently proposed for C. ilicicola. Calonectria lauri is distinct from Ca. ilicicola, a pathogen commonly associated with Cylindrocladium black rot of peanut. Finally, Ca. canadiana is proposed asnew name for Cy. canadiense, which is a nursery pathogen involved with root rot of several tree genera in Quebec, Canada

Zulu oral art

Oral tradition? Verbal art? Traditional literature? Performance? The terms used for oral art in South Africa are almost just as varied as the art forms themselves. While these names represent the way academics view their subject matter, they also represent, to some degree, the state of the subject matter. The varied forms of oral tradition in South Africa span the whole spectrum from extinct and forgotten to emergent and unrecognized.Not

I control the idioms : Creativity in Ndebele praise poetry

With reference to the analysis of Ndebele praise poetry that is the subject of this article, "creativity" will refer mainly to two aspects of language use, namely (a) the ability of praise poets to constantly renew well-known formulaic expressions by linguistic adaptation and (b) a more innovative aspect: the coinage of new metaphors, the forte of praise poets in Southern Africa. We will then pose the question as to whether these aspects of creativity are enough to sustain the tradition of praising in Ndebele.Not

Myrtaceae, a cache of fungal biodiversity

Twenty-six species of microfungi are treated, the majority of which are associated with leaf spots of Corymbia, Eucalyptus and Syzygium spp. (Myrtaceae). The treated species include three new genera, Bagadiella, Foliocryphia and Pseudoramichloridium, 20 new species and one new combination. Novelties on Eucalyptus include: Antennariella placitae, Bagadiella lunata, Cladoriella rubrigena, C. paleospora, Cyphellophora eucalypti, Elsinoë eucalypticola, Foliocryphia eucalypti, Leptoxyphium madagascariense, Neofabraea eucalypti, Polyscytalum algarvense, Quambalaria simpsonii, Selenophoma australiensis, Sphaceloma tectificae, Strelitziana australiensis and Zeloasperisporium eucalyptorum. Stylaspergillus synanamorphs are reported for two species of Parasympodiella, P. eucalypti sp. nov. and P. elongata, while Blastacervulus eucalypti, Minimedusa obcoronata and Sydowia eucalypti are described from culture. Furthermore, Penidiella corymbia and Pseudoramichloridium henryi are newly described on Corymbia, Pseudocercospora palleobrunnea on Syzygium and Rachicladosporium americanum on leaf litter. To facilitate species identification, as well as determine phylogenetic relationships, DNA sequence data were generated from the internal transcribed spacers (ITS1, 5.8S nrDNA, ITS2) and the 28S nrDNA (LSU) regions of all taxa studie

Species of Cercospora associated with grey leaf spot of maize

Grey leaf spot is a serious yield-reducing disease of maize (Zea mays) in many parts of the world where this crop is cultivated. The causal organism associated with the disease is Cercospora zeae-maydis. Two potential sibling species have been recognized as Groups I and II. The DNA sequences for the internal transcribed spacers (ITS1 & ITS2), the 5.8S rRNA gene, elongation factor 1-α, histone H3, actin and calmodulin gene regions suggest that Groups I and II are two distinct species. Furthermore, Cercospora zeae-maydis (Group I) can be distinguished from C. zeina sp. nov. (Group II) by its faster growth rate on artificial media, the ability to produce cercosporin, longer conidiophores, and broadly fusiform conidia. A PCR-based test that distinguishes the two species was developed using species-specific primers designed from the histone H3 gene

The pattern of expenditure of social pension income of older blacks in rural and urban areas of the Free State, South Africa

A lack of empirical data on the pattern of expenditure of social pension income by black South African beneficiaries prompted an investigation reported in this paper. It was found that although pension sharing is common in multi-generational households, it is not the norm among black pensioners who live alone. Food is the largest single expenditure item, while a relatively small amount of pension money is spent on children and/or grandchildren. Nor does much pension money find its way into the hands of cash loan agents. Little difference was found between the spending patterns of pensioners in rural areas and those in an urban area. It was moreover found that pensioners are less frequently robbed of their pension money than is alleged

Understanding 3D mid-air hand gestures with interactive surfaces and displays: a systematic literature review

3D gesture based systems are becoming ubiquitous and there are many mid-air hand gestures that exist for interacting with digital surfaces and displays. There is no well defined gesture set for 3D mid-air hand gestures which makes it difficult to develop applications that have consistent gestures. To understand what gestures exist we conducted the first comprehensive systematic literature review on mid-air hand gestures following existing research methods. The results of the review identified 65 papers where the mid-air hand gestures supported tasks for selection, navigation, and manipulation. We also classified the gestures according to a gesture classification scheme and identified how these gestures have been empirically evaluated. The results of the review provide a richer understanding of what mid-air hand gestures have been designed, implemented, and evaluated in the literature which can help developers design better user experiences for digital interactive surfaces and displays

How analysts think: how do criminal intelligence analysts recognise and manage significant information?

The Criminal Intelligence Analyst's role is to create exhibits which are relevant, accurate and unbiased. Exhibits can be used as input to assist decision-making in intelligence-led policing. It may also be used as evidence in a court of law. The aim of this study was to determine how Criminal Intelligence Analysts recognise and manage significant information as a method to determine what is relevant for their attention and for the creation of exhibits. This in turn may provide guidance on how to design and incorporate loose and flexible argumentation schemas into sense-making software. The objective is to be informed on how to design software, which affords Criminal Intelligence Analysts with the ability to effortlessly determine the relevance of information, which subsequently could assist with the process of assessing and defending the quality of exhibits

Supporting the externalisation of thinking in criminal intelligence analysis

At the end of the criminal intelligence analysis process there are relatively well established and understood approaches to explicit externalisation and representation of thought that include theories of argumentation, narrative and hybrid approaches that include both of these. However the focus of this paper is on the little understood area of how to support users in the process of arriving at such representations from an initial starting point where little is given. The work is based on theoretical considerations and some initial studies with end users. In focusing on process we discuss the requirements of fluidity and rigor and how to gain traction in investigations, the processes of thinking involved including abductive, deductive and inductive reasoning, how users may use thematic sorting in early stages of investigation and how tactile reasoning may be used to externalize and facilitate reasoning in a productive way. In the conclusion section we discuss the issues raised in this work and directions for future work